His Alawite and Christian friends-all of whom are scared-agree, he says.
But so far the Alawite-led army, with its array of privileges, has remained loyal to the defiant Mr Assad.
In response, the regime sent out its security forces and military police, the shabiha, a thuggish Alawite gang, and pro-government bruisers.
In short, Morocco's 300-year-old Alawite dynasty may start to look a bit more like the popular Bourbons, still reigning across the straits in Spain.
